The strange economic indicator that's screaming a warning
Forget complex charts and jargon-filled reports. One of the most powerful predictors of an economic slowdown might be sitting in your recycling bin. We reveal the 'cardboard box indicator' and why it's a flashing red warning sign you can't afford to ignore.
Right, forget the noise from the financial news channels for a moment. Let's talk about something real, something tangible: the humble cardboard box. It sounds mad, but the demand for cardboard boxes is one of the most reliable, under-the-radar indicators of economic health, and right now, it's sending a worrying signal.
According to WSJ reporter Ryan DeSimmer, 'box shipments have fallen from the record highs reached during the pandemic to the lowest levels since 2016' (The Wall Street Journal - What's News PM, https://www.wsj.com/podcasts/whats-news). This isn't just a quirky statistic; it's a 'big flashing warning sign for the business ahead' (The Wall Street Journal - What's News PM, https://www.wsj.com/podcasts/whats-news).
Why? Because as DeSimmer points out, 'everything from a pizza to the oven you cook it in, comes in a box' (The Wall Street Journal - What's News PM, https://www.wsj.com/podcasts/whats-news). When fewer boxes are being shipped, it means fewer goods are being manufactured, transported, and sold. It's a direct reflection of a slowdown in consumer spending and overall economic activity.
The slump is being caused by a combination of factors. There are 'cyclical trends' like 'anxiety over tariffs... weakening consumer spending... and the housing slump' (The Wall Street Journal - What's News PM, https://www.wsj.com/podcasts/whats-news). When people aren't moving house, they're not buying new refrigerators, washing machines, and all the other big-ticket items that come in giant boxes.
There are also 'secular trends'—more permanent shifts—like Amazon using smaller, more efficient packaging and paper mailers to save on fuel costs. But the cyclical downturn is what should have every investor's attention.
This is a perfect example of what we teach at the Dojo: becoming an accomplished thinker. It's about looking beyond the obvious headlines and finding alternative data sources that give you a real edge. While everyone else is watching the stock market ticker, you're watching the recycling lorries. That's how you protect your family's capital and prepare for what's coming next.
Learning Outcomes
Actionable Practices
Start an 'Economic Diary'. Once a week, write down one observation about the economy from your daily life.